My personal guess, right now, is that Kerry will win the election. Taking Tanenbaum's numbers and moving NJ, OH and WI to Kerry, the outcome would be Kerry/Edwards winning 312 to 226.
My hope is that he'll win 270+ EVs by more than 3% per state, which should put paid to any claims that the election was stolen.
(By the way, Tanenbaum's site has apparently being the subject of repeated DoS attacks recently. He's got mirrors at wwww.electoral-vote2.com through www.electoral-vote8.com; he's also been using the attack data to help a couple of the other professors at his university with their research on coping with flash crowds... )
